https://www.robmislavsky.com/publications/21528-premature-predictions-accurate-forecasters-are-not-viewed-as-more-competent-for-earlier-predictions
Robert Mislavsky - Premature Predictions: Accurate Forecasters Are Not
How does the timing of a prediction influence how a forecaster is perceived? Many people believe that they will be seen as more competent if they make accura...
robertprematurepredictionsaccurateforecasters