https://philippdubach.com/posts/three-kinds-of-not-knowing/
Knightian Uncertainty: Risk, Uncertainty, and Ignorance - philippdubach.com
May 9, 2026 - Knightian uncertainty splits not-knowing into risk, uncertainty, and ignorance. A century after Knight and Keynes, most of investing still ignores the split.
uncertaintyriskignorancephilippdubach
https://philippdubach.com/posts/weather-forecasts-have-improved-a-lot/
AI Weather Forecasting: How DeepMind's WeatherNext 2 Works - philippdubach.com
Feb 22, 2026 - Four-day forecasts now match one-day accuracy from 30 years ago. How AI models like WeatherNext 2 use CRPS training to preserve extreme weather signals.
weather forecastingaideepmind
https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-saaspocalypse-paradox/
SaaSpocalypse 2026: The Software Sell-Off Paradox - philippdubach.com
May 14, 2026 - AI capex failure and AI replacing all software are mutually exclusive. Why the 2026 SaaSpocalypse is a $2 trillion pricing error, not an extinction event.
the softwaresaaspocalypsesellparadoxphilippdubach
https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-last-architecture-designed-by-hand/
What Comes After Transformers: Hybrid AI Architecture in 2026 - philippdubach.com
Mar 16, 2026 - The transformer's limits are now mathematical proofs, not empirical hunches. Hybrids are in production. AI is searching for its own replacement. Here's what...
what comes afterhybrid aitransformers
https://philippdubach.com/posts/karpathys-software-3.0-playbook/
Karpathy's Software 3.0 Playbook: 12 Lessons from Sequoia - philippdubach.com
May 9, 2026 - Twelve lessons from Andrej Karpathy's Sequoia interview: Software 3.0, vibe coding versus agentic engineering, jagged intelligence, and why December 2024 was...
https://philippdubach.com/posts/f3ed-cant-call-an-ace-fixing-a-neurips-2024-tennis-model/
F3ED Tennis Model Audit: Fixing Outcome Labels with OCR - philippdubach.com
May 4, 2026 - F3ED, the NeurIPS 2024 tennis shot detector, mislabels 73% of single-shot serve unforced errors. A 23-line scoreboard OCR reconciler fixes them.
model audittennisfixing
https://philippdubach.com/posts/where-mobile-money-goes-now/
State of Mobile 2026: Apps Overtake Games, AI Adds $3.5B - philippdubach.com
Mar 15, 2026 - Apps overtook games in mobile IAP revenue for the first time in 2025, driven by $3.5B in GenAI growth. Analysis of Sensor Tower's State of Mobile 2026 report.
https://philippdubach.com/posts/ozempic-is-reshaping-the-fast-food-industry/
GLP-1 Food Industry Impact: Cornell Data Shows 8% Fast Food Drop - philippdubach.com
May 14, 2026 - Cornell research: GLP-1 users cut grocery spending 5.3%, fast food 8%. With 16% household adoption and savory snacks down 10%, food stocks face headwinds.
https://philippdubach.com/posts/working-with-models/
Diffusion Models: Learn the Math with Stanford CS236 - philippdubach.com
Feb 22, 2026 - Diffusion models corrupt data into noise, then reverse the process. Learn the math with Stefano Ermon's Stanford CS236 course, free on YouTube.
diffusion modelsthe mathlearnstanfordphilippdubach
https://philippdubach.com/posts/economics-of-a-super-bowl-ad/
Super Bowl Ad Economics 2026: The $8M Prisoner's Dilemma - philippdubach.com
May 4, 2026 - A 30-second Super Bowl spot costs $8M. The real price is $16–23M. The ROI evidence is mixed. A deep look at the pricing, the prisoner's dilemma, and the NFL.
super bowl
https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-geometry-of-who-knows-what/
Information Asymmetry: When Nobody Knows More Than You - philippdubach.com
May 17, 2026 - When neither side can define the states of the world, adverse selection fears are misplaced. Zeckhauser's information matrices and constraint arbitrage.
information asymmetrynobody knowsmore thanphilippdubach
https://philippdubach.com/research/
Research & Working Papers — Philipp D. Dubach - philippdubach.com
May 2, 2026 - Working papers and peer-reviewed research by Philipp D. Dubach: prediction market microstructure, glycemic response modeling, Hacker News attention dynamics,...
working papersresearchphilipp
https://philippdubach.com/posts/alphafold-3-free-for-science/
AlphaFold 3: Google's Free Drug Discovery Strategy - philippdubach.com
Feb 23, 2026 - Google released AlphaFold 3 for free, predicting molecular interactions beyond proteins. But is this generosity or a cloud platform play to own drug discovery?
drug discoveryalphafoldgooglefreestrategy
https://philippdubach.com/posts/mcp-vs-a2a-in-2026-how-the-ai-protocol-war-ends/
MCP vs A2A in 2026: How the AI Protocol War Ends - philippdubach.com
May 4, 2026 - MCP leads with 97M monthly SDK downloads and 10,000+ servers. A2A fills a different layer. Analysis of the agentic AI standards war with historical parallels.
https://philippdubach.com/posts/building-a-no-tracking-newsletter-from-markdown-to-distribution/
Build a No-Tracking Newsletter: Markdown to Email with Cloudflare - philippdubach.com
May 4, 2026 - Build a privacy-focused newsletter with Python, Cloudflare Workers KV, and Resend API. Zero tracking, zero cost, full control. Open source code included.
no tracking