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https://epoch.ai/ Epoch AI Epoch AI is a research institute investigating key trends and questions that will shape the trajectory and governance of Artificial Intelligence. epoch ai https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/keeping-up-with-the-gpts Keeping up with the GPTs | Epoch AI Can Chinese and open model companies compete with the frontier through e.g. distillation and talent? keeping up with the epoch ai gpts https://epoch.ai/about/team/ben-cottier Ben Cottier | Epoch AI Ben Cottier is a senior researcher at Epoch AI. He leads the Frontier Data Centers project. Besides data centers, Ben is interested in AI cost trends and the di epoch ai ben https://jobs.lever.co/epoch-ai/ab88ba6e-6a92-44cc-8830-a2dafca31f1a Epoch AI - Data Scientist (Contract) Epoch is seeking part-time data scientists to assist with our AI research efforts. This role involves reviewing technical literature, tracking benchmark data,... ai data scientist epoch contract https://epoch.ai/blog/how-fast-could-robot-production-scale-up How Fast Could Robot Production Scale Up? | Epoch AI We look at reference classes, factory buildout timelines, and upstream component supply to estimate plausible production rates for humanoids, quadrupeds,... how fast production scale epoch ai could robot https://epoch.ai/trends Trends in Artificial Intelligence | Epoch AI Frontier AI systems are advancing rapidly from increases in compute, hardware performance, software efficiency, and investment. This dashboard explores those... artificial intelligence epoch ai trends https://epoch.ai/data-insights/output-length LLM responses to benchmark questions are getting longer over time | Epoch AI Epoch AI is a research institute investigating key trends and questions that will shape the trajectory and governance of Artificial Intelligence. over time epoch ai https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/less-than-70-percent-of-frontiermath-is-within-reach-for-todays-models Less than 70% of FrontierMath is within reach for today’s models | Epoch AI 57% of problems have been solved at least once. less than within reach epoch ai frontiermath models https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/how-much-energy-does-chatgpt-use How much energy does ChatGPT use? | Epoch AI This Gradient Updates issue explores how much energy ChatGPT uses per query, revealing it's 10x less than common estimates. how much epoch ai energy chatgpt use https://epoch.ai/blog/deep-think-math Evaluating Gemini 2.5 Deep Think's math capabilities | Epoch AI Improved use of knowledge and precision, helpful for research, more conceptual in geometry, but limited creativity and citation issues. deep think epoch ai evaluating gemini math https://epoch.ai/topics Topics | Epoch AI Browse Epoch AI's research and analysis by topic. epoch ai topics https://epoch.ai/data/data-centers-documentation Frontier Data Centers Documentation | Epoch AI Epoch’s Frontier Data Centers Hub is an independent database tracking the construction timelines of major AI data centers through high-resolution satellite... frontier data centers epoch ai documentation https://epoch.ai/blog/predicting-gpu-performance Predicting GPU performance | Epoch AI We forecast field-effect transistor-based GPUs will plateau sometime between 2027 and 2035, offering a performance between 1e14 and 1e15 FLOP/s in FP32. epoch ai predicting gpu performance https://epoch.ai/data-insights/b200-cost-breakdown NVIDIA's B200 costs around $6,400 to produce | Epoch AI We estimate that NVIDIA’s B200 costs around $6,400 to produce, with High Bandwidth Memory accounting for half of that. epoch ai nvidia b200 costs around https://epoch.ai/data/gpu-clusters Data on GPU clusters | Epoch AI Our database of over 500 GPU clusters and supercomputers tracks large hardware facilities, including those used for AI training and inference. gpu clusters epoch ai data https://epoch.ai/blog/measure-FLOP-empirically How to measure FLOP for neural networks empirically? | Epoch AI Computing the utilization rate for multiple Neural Network architectures. how to measure neural networks epoch ai flop https://epoch.ai/blog/grok-4-math Evaluating Grok 4’s math capabilities | Epoch AI It's good at involved computations, improving at proofs, and useful for literature search. It still favors low-level grinds and leans on background knowledge. epoch ai evaluating grok math capabilities https://epoch.ai/blog/the-direct-approach The Direct Approach | Epoch AI We propose a method using neural scaling laws to estimate the compute needed to train AI models to reach human-level performance on various tasks. epoch ai direct approach https://epoch.ai/blog/algorithmic-progress-in-language-models Algorithmic progress in language models | Epoch AI Progress in pretrained language model performance outpaces expectations, occurring at a pace equivalent to doubling computational power every 5 to 14 months. language models epoch ai algorithmic progress https://epoch.ai/latest Latest | Epoch AI Explore Epoch AI’s most recent work, including research papers, data insights, our newsletter, and podcast episodes in one comprehensive view. epoch ai latest https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/the-changing-drivers-of-llm-adoption The changing drivers of LLM adoption | Epoch AI Public data as well as our original polling suggest LLM adoption is roughly on trend, but the underlying drivers are shifting. changing drivers epoch ai llm adoption https://epoch.ai/blog/chinchilla-scaling-a-replication-attempt Chinchilla scaling: A replication attempt | Epoch AI We replicate Hoffmann et al.’s parametric scaling law estimates, finding issues and providing better-fitting estimates that align with their other methods. epoch ai chinchilla scaling replication attempt https://epoch.ai/cookies Cookie Policy | Epoch AI Learn how Epoch AI uses cookies and similar technologies on this website. cookie policy epoch ai https://epoch.ai/blog/epoch-and-fri-mentorship-program-summer-2023 Epoch AI and FRI mentorship program summer 2023 | Epoch AI We’re launching the Epoch and FRI mentorship program for women, non-binary, and transgender people interested in AI forecasting. epoch ai mentorship program fri summer https://epoch.ai/blog/parameter-counts Parameter counts in machine learning | Epoch AI Compiling a large dataset of machine learning models to determine changes in the parameters counts of systems since 1952. machine learning epoch ai parameter counts https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/beyond-benchmark-scores-analysing-o3-mini-math-reasoning Beyond benchmark scores: Analyzing o3-mini’s mathematical reasoning | Epoch AI Examining o3-mini's math reasoning: an erudite, vibes-based solver that excels in knowledge but lacks precision, creativity, and formal human rigor. mathematical reasoning epoch ai beyond benchmark scores https://jobs.lever.co/epoch-ai/de7b4c71-ece2-454a-be70-e7b75c5f3b23 Epoch AI - Researcher / Senior Researcher Epoch AI is looking for experienced researchers to lead new projects on one of multiple expanding teams. About the role We’re seeking Researchers and Senior... epoch ai researcher senior https://epoch.ai/about/team Our Team | Epoch AI Meet the team behind Epoch AI and learn about the values we are committed to. our team epoch ai https://epoch.ai/about/transparency Transparency | Epoch AI Support Epoch AI’s research on the future of AI through a donation. epoch ai transparency https://epoch.ai/blog/please-report-your-compute Please report your compute | Epoch AI Compute is essential for AI performance, yet often underreported. Adopting reporting norms would improve research, forecasts, and policy decisions. please report epoch ai compute https://epoch.ai/blog/estimating-training-compute Estimating training compute of deep learning models | Epoch AI We describe two approaches for estimating the training compute of Deep Learning systems, by counting operations and looking at GPU time. deep learning models epoch ai estimating training compute https://epoch.ai/about/careers Careers | Epoch AI Explore Epoch AI’s career opportunities, apply to open positions, and help shape the future of AI. epoch ai careers https://epoch.ai/blog/epoch-impact-report-2023 Epoch AI 2023 impact report | Epoch AI In 2023, Epoch published nearly 20 reports on AI, added hundreds of models to our database, helped with government policies, and raised over $7 million. epoch ai impact report https://epoch.ai/data-insights/openai-compute-spend Most of OpenAI’s 2024 compute went to experiments | Epoch AI epoch ai compute went experiments https://epoch.ai/topics/open-models Open-Weight Models: Data & Research | Epoch AI Some of the most powerful AI systems in the world are available for anyone to download, run, and build on. Others remain fully proprietary. These open models,... open weight models data research epoch ai https://epoch.ai/about/team/ricardo-pimentel Ricardo Pimentel | Epoch AI Ricardo Pimentel is an operations associate at Epoch AI, focusing on business operations. He has a background in finance, venture capital and venture philanthro epoch ai ricardo pimentel https://epoch.ai/data-insights/llm-inference-price-trends LLM inference prices have fallen rapidly but unequally across tasks | Epoch AI Epoch AI is a research institute investigating key trends and questions that will shape the trajectory and governance of Artificial Intelligence. llm inference epoch ai https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/the-promise-of-reasoning-models The promise of reasoning models | Epoch AI AI reasoning models will achieve superhuman performance in math and coding, yet their economic applications will lag behind, limiting real-world impact. the promise reasoning models epoch ai https://epoch.ai/contact Contact | Epoch AI Get in touch with Epoch AI. We will respond if we can accommodate your request. contact epoch ai https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems FrontierMath: Open Problems - Unsolved Mathematical Challenges | Epoch AI A collection of unsolved mathematical problems designed to test AI systems' ability to advance human mathematical knowledge. open problems epoch ai frontiermath unsolved mathematical https://epoch.ai/blog/backward-forward-FLOP-ratio What’s the backward-forward FLOP ratio for neural networks? | Epoch AI Determining the backward-forward FLOP ratio for neural networks, to help calculate their total training compute. neural networks epoch ai backward forward flop https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/about About | Benchmarking | Epoch AI Epoch's AI Benchmarking Hub brings together results from many of the most informative AI benchmarks into one consistent, searchable place. about benchmarking epoch ai https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/the-software-intelligence-explosion-debate-needs-experiments The software intelligence explosion debate needs experiments | Epoch AI The existing debate rests on data and assumptions that are shakier than most people realize. To make progress, we need better evidence, and experiments are the... the software intelligence explosion epoch ai debate needs https://epoch.ai/blog/the-limited-benefit-of-recycling-foundation-models The limited benefit of recycling foundation models | Epoch AI Reusing pretrained models can save on training costs, but it's unlikely to significantly boost AI capabilities beyond modest improvements. the limited foundation models epoch ai benefit recycling https://epoch.ai/data/data-centers Frontier Data Centers | Epoch AI Open database of AI data centers using satellite and permit data to show compute, power use, and construction timelines. frontier data centers epoch ai https://epoch.ai/blog/power-laws-in-speedrunning-and-machine-learning Power laws in speedrunning and machine learning | Epoch AI Our model suggests ML benchmarks aren’t near saturation. While large improvements are rare, we find 1OOM gains happen roughly once in every 50 instances. power laws machine learning epoch ai speedrunning https://epoch.ai/data-insights Data Insights | Epoch AI Epoch AI’s data insights break down complex AI trends into focused, digestible snapshots. data insights epoch ai https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/how-much-energy-does-chatgpt-use/ How much energy does ChatGPT use? | Epoch AI This Gradient Updates issue explores how much energy ChatGPT uses per query, revealing it's 10x less than common estimates. how much epoch ai energy chatgpt use https://epoch.ai/data/machine-learning-hardware Data on Machine Learning Hardware | Epoch AI We present key data on over 170 AI accelerators, such as graphics processing units (GPUs) and tensor processing units (TPUs), used to develop and deploy... machine learning epoch ai data hardware https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/quantifying-the-algorithmic-improvement-from-reasoning-models Quantifying the algorithmic improvement from reasoning models | Epoch AI Reasoning models were as big of an improvement as the Transformer, at least on some benchmarks reasoning models epoch ai algorithmic improvement https://epoch.ai/data-insights/benchmark-correlations Benchmark scores are well correlated, even across domains | Epoch AI Model rankings are remarkably consistent across most AI benchmarks. Across 16 benchmarks with at least 10 models overlapping, the median pairwise correlation... epoch ai benchmark scores well correlated https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/how-fast-can-algorithms-advance-capabilities How fast can algorithms advance capabilities? | Epoch AI This week's issue is a guest post by Henry Josephson, who is a research manager at UChicago's XLab and an AI governance intern at Google DeepMind. how fast epoch ai algorithms advance capabilities https://epoch.ai/blog/trading-off-compute-in-training-and-inference Trading off compute in training and inference | Epoch AI We characterize techniques that induce a tradeoff between spending resources on training and inference, outlining their implications for AI governance. trading off epoch ai compute training inference https://epoch.ai/blog/compute-trends Compute trends across three eras of machine learning | Epoch AI We’ve compiled a comprehensive dataset of the training compute of AI models, providing key insights into AI development. machine learning epoch ai compute trends across https://epoch.ai/blog/epoch-impact-report-2022 Epoch AI 2022 impact report | Epoch AI Our impact report for 2022. epoch ai impact report https://epoch.ai/blog Papers & Reports | Epoch AI Explore Epoch AI's latest insights on the trajectory of AI, including topics like compute, data, algorithmic advances, economics, and forecasting. epoch ai papers reports https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/frontier-language-models-have-become-much-smaller Frontier language models have become much smaller | Epoch AI In this Gradient Updates weekly issue, Ege discusses how frontier language models have unexpectedly reversed course on scaling, with current models an order of... language models have become epoch ai frontier much https://epoch.ai/about About Us | Epoch AI Epoch AI is a multidisciplinary research institute investigating the trajectory of AI and forecasting its economic and societal impact. epoch ai us https://epoch.ai/about/donate Donate | Epoch AI Support our mission to improve the shared understanding of AI. Your contribution helps fund independent research that informs better policy and decision-making. epoch ai donate https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/the-real-reason-ai-benchmarks-havent-reflected-economic-impacts The real reason AI benchmarks haven’t reflected economic impacts | Epoch AI The real reason that AI benchmarks haven’t reflected real-world impacts historically is that they weren’t optimized for this, not because of fundamental... the real reason ai benchmarks economic impacts reflected epoch https://epoch.ai/topics/scaling AI Scaling: Data & Research | Epoch AI The story of AI progress is dominated by scale. Training AI systems with more compute, power and data has consistently led to better performance. Epoch tracks... ai scaling data research epoch