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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/01/postseason-projections-wild-card-round.html?showComment=1325792225188
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Postseason Projections: Wild Card Round
And then there were twelve. After 17 weeks and 256 games, the field has been winnowed and the playoff bracket is set. For the postseason,...
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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/07/drunkards-light-posts-and-myth-of-370.html?showComment=1266562456721
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Drunkards, Light Posts, and the Myth of...
Running back overuse has been a hot topic in the NFL lately, partly because of Football Outsiders' promotion of their "Curse of 370" theory....
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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/12/team-efficiency-rankings-week-14.html?showComment=1291924444703
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 14
San Diego's strange season continues, but they lose their #1 spots on offense and defense. NE now owns the offensive honors while Pittsburgh...
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatsteam
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2014/09/2014-season-predictions-for-espn.html
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): 2014 Season Predictions for ESPN the...
ESPN asked me to predict the 2014 season for their NFL Preview edition of their magazine . I was very hesitant because predicting the sea...
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatsseason
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/04/play-by-play-data.html?showComment=1320506395798
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Play-by-Play Data
I've recently completed a project to compile publicly-available NFL play-by-play data. It took a while, but now it's ready. The resulting ...
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatsplay
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/02/super-bowl-42-analysis.html?showComment=1328536031873
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Super Bowl 46 Analysis
This became a really interesting game in the final two minutes. First off, as I wrote for Slate and Deadspin , the big thing from a str...
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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/10/efficiency-rankings-week-8.html?showComment=1256955422347
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Efficiency Rankings - Week 8
The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a n...
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatsefficiency
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2007/01/other-stats-correlations-with-wins.html
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Other Stats' Correlations with Wins
Some might question why I quickly settled on the 4 efficiency statistics as those most descriptive of team performance and ability. It's a f...
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatscorrelations
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/01/postseason-projections-wild-card-round.html?showComment=1325780714131
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Postseason Projections: Wild Card Round
And then there were twelve. After 17 weeks and 256 games, the field has been winnowed and the playoff bracket is set. For the postseason,...
advanced football analyticswild card roundformerlynflstats
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2011/12/weekly-game-probabilities_08.html
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Weekly Game Probabilities
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down . This week I focus on the NFC East showdown between the Giants a...
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatsweekly
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/04/play-by-play-data.html?showComment=1356366215421
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Play-by-Play Data
I've recently completed a project to compile publicly-available NFL play-by-play data. It took a while, but now it's ready. The resulting ...
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatsplay
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/03/new-proposed-overtime-rules.html?showComment=1267610527177
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): New Proposed Overtime Rules
The NFL announced it is considering new overtime rules. The new rules will be considered by the competition committee and, if approved, woul...
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatsnew
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2011/02/change.html?showComment=1390706953421
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Change
As the 2010 season is put to rest, the league and union are negotiating the next collective bargaining agreement. In addition to pay and ben...
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatschange
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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2011/01/weekly-league-notes-and-ideas-for-wild.html
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for...
This week's edition of The Weekly League features more links than all my gold chains combined . New Orleans at Seattle | Saturday, January 0...
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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/12/cam-newton-best-first-two-seasons-ever.html?showComment=1356734942657
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Cam Newton: The Best First Two Seasons...
This Sunday, Cam Newton will finish his second NFL season. As the final whistle blows in the Panthers' final 2012 contest against New Orlean...
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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/12/my-gift-to-football-columnists-sports.html?showComment=1356396451506
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): My Gift to Football Columnists: The...
It's the season for giving, and in that spirit I have created something for local sports columnists all over the country. I know it's toug...
advanced football analyticsmy giftformerlynflstats
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2011/10/weekly-game-probabilities_27.html?showComment=1319741538789
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Weekly Game Probabilities
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down . The lead-in is a re-purposed version of my discussion of intang...
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatsweekly
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2011/01/2010-team-efficiency-rankings-final.html?showComment=1294176617616
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): 2010 Team Efficiency Rankings - Final
The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a n...
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatsteam
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/09/context-for-packers-seahawks-final-play.html?showComment=1348606190760
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Context for the Packers-Seahawks Final...
To put last night's Russell Wilson-to-Golden Tate Hail Mary That Shouldn't Have Been in perspective, consider these sets of plays from Week ...
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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/03/live-ncaa-basketball-win-probability.html?showComment=1269714693864
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Live NCAA Basketball Win Probability
Live win probability for the NCAA basketball championship games is available now at wp.advancednflstats.com/bball . (Final games are here . ...
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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/01/bad-overtime-logic-and-good-kickers.html?showComment=1231621200000
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Bad Overtime Logic and Good Kickers
One thing about the web is that you can tell what topics fans are genuinely interested in. This week there were many hits on the OT coin fli...
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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/10/how-important-is-coin-flip-in-ot.html?showComment=1226686620000
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): How Important is the Coin Flip in OT?
All of our favorite teams have been on the short end of the stick when it comes to sudden death overtime in the NFL. The opposing team wins ...
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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/04/play-by-play-data.html?showComment=1272553532956
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Play-by-Play Data
I've recently completed a project to compile publicly-available NFL play-by-play data. It took a while, but now it's ready. The resulting ...
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatsplay
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/12/attention-all-offensive-coordinators.html?showComment=1354651618328
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Attention All Offensive Coordinators
Fourth down and short in the middle of the field does not mean you need to run a goal line play with the jumbo package. The average play in ...
advanced football analyticsoffensive coordinatorsformerlynflstats
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/10/washington-post-clinton-portis.html?showComment=1293883475910
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Washington Post: Clinton Portis'...
Today I've got another post up at the Washington Post's Redskins Insider site about how misleading Clinton Portis' rushing yardage totals a...
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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/09/new-academic-study-on-game-theory-and.html?showComment=1254300305424
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): A New Academic Study on Game Theory and...
There’s a new study on run-pass balance based on game theory minimax equilibrium. The study is called Professionals Do Not Play Minimax: Evi...
advanced football analyticsnew academicgame theoryformerlynfl
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/03/tackle-factor.html?showComment=1267834466666
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): "Tackle Factor"
I keep seeing 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis' name listed at the top of defensive player statistics the last few years. He led the league i...
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatstackle
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/11/valuing-offensive-line-performance.html
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Valuing Offensive Line Performance
Valuing the play of an offensive line is naturally difficult. Unlike other positions, an offensive lineman's performance on any given play i...
advanced football analyticsoffensive lineformerlynflstats
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2011/12/brees-versus-marino-2011-versus-1984.html?showComment=1325097328765
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Brees versus Marino, 2011 versus 1984
On Monday night we saw history. Drew Brees eclipsed Dan Marino's record of 5,084 total passing yards on a late-game touchdown pass to Darr...
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatsbrees
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2011/01/kicker-billy-cundiff-had-20-sacks-this.html
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Kicker Billy Cundiff Had 20 Sacks This...
Last Sunday Baltimore's kicker Billy Cundiff tied the NFL regular season record for the most touchbacks with 40. That's over a 50% touchback...
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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/11/game-notes-eagles-fall-to-saints.html
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Game Notes: Eagles fall to the Saints
Below are some observations the author noted while watching tape of the New Orleans Saints' 28-13 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on...
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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2013/01/whos-clutchiest-post-season-qb.html
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Who's the Clutchiest Post-Season QB?
What does clutch even mean? To me clutch means someone who has over-performed his typical expected level of performance in high-leverage s...
advanced football analyticspost seasonformerlynflstats
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2007/10/game-model-coefficients.html?showComment=1191658020000
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Game Model Coefficients
In the interest of full disclosure, or for those fellow uber-geeks, here is the actual model I'll be using for estimating outcome probabilit...
advanced football analyticsgame modelformerlynflstats
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2011/11/tebow.html?showComment=1322531980039
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Tebow
Is Tebow the reason the Broncos are winning? Every third news item or blog post I come across seems to be pulling its collective hair out, p...
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatstebow
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/05/are-nfl-coaches-too-timid.html?showComment=1259102673053
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Are NFL Coaches Too Timid?
Risk is at the heart of football strategy. Aggressive, risky gameplans should result in boom-or-bust high-variance outcomes, sometimes scori...
advanced football analyticstoo timidformerlynflstats
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/11/last-thoughts-on-4th-and-2.html?showComment=1259069876242
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Last Thoughts on the 4th and 2
At the risk of being accused of milking this thing, here are some final few thoughts on the topic. I watched the Football Night in America s...
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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/02/introducing-individual-player-stats.html?showComment=1267569016060
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Introducing Individual Player Stats
You may have noticed some minor cosmetic changes to the site this morning. The menu has been reorganized and the site is more tightly integr...
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https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/10/washington-post-can-one-player-single.html?showComment=1288283418939
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Washington Post: Can One Player...
Today I've got another post up at the Washington Post's Redskins Insider site . This time I look at DeAngelo Hall's single-handed performanc...
advanced football analyticswashington postone playerformerlynfl
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/01/live-wp-graphs-and-analysis_15.html
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Live WP Graphs and Analysis
Keep up to speed with the live WP Graph for the NYG-GB game . Everyone's invited to join the commentary and analysis thread.
advanced football analyticsformerlynflstatslive
https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/05/are-nfl-coaches-too-timid.html?showComment=1243387893456
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Are NFL Coaches Too Timid?
Risk is at the heart of football strategy. Aggressive, risky gameplans should result in boom-or-bust high-variance outcomes, sometimes scori...
advanced football analyticstoo timidformerlynflstats